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Estimating & Forecasting

Cost and schedule estimating in practice.

How do you model escalation on a five-year job
Bottom-up vs parametric when the scope is still moving
What does your estimate basis document actually contain?

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Forum / Estimating & Forecasting

How do you model escalation on a five-year job

Dana Okoro · 3 days ago

We stopped using a single CPI series and moved to a blended index, rebaselining quarterly. The blended view separated packages that were genuinely late from those that were mis-estimated at sanction — which one index had been hiding. Curious what others do on long-duration work where the commodity mix shifts.
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Priya Raman · 2 days ago

Blend by commodity weight, not by spend. We hold three series — labour, steel, and a general index — and reweight at each rebaseline against the remaining quantities rather than the remaining budget. The difference shows up around year three, when the mix has moved but the budget split hasn’t.
Tomasz Nowak · yesterday

Worth adding: whatever you choose, write down why in the estimate basis. The next planner inherits your index and no reasoning.

Edited to add the second sentence.

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